This post is an adaptation of YNAB’s fan-favorite newsletter, Loose Change.
It has been impossible to escape the escalating uncertainty of the tariffs. I called my HVAC guy late on a Friday afternoon because we’ve got a renovation in motion. Would tariffs affect the (already-expensive) Fujitsu I haven’t yet ordered? He’d been in business for 40 years and said, with some exhaustion, he couldn’t get a straight answer from his suppliers.
The Wall Street Journal ran a headline last week: “Markets in Freefall.” J.P. Morgan rated the chances of a recession this year at 60%.
Meanwhile, the rationalists among us point to historical graphs that show other instances of market freefalls. Helpful articles take an academic spin on the raw panic: “What is a Bear Market?”
Still, I try to acclimate. It reminds me of watching early-pandemic major league baseball games with cardboard cutouts of fans in the otherwise-empty stands. The players pitched, hit, and ran the bases as usual, following the rules even if, off the field, all the rules had changed.
What will an 18,000 BTU Fujitsu air handler cost with the new trade rules? Who will lose their jobs? Has the consumer game we’ve been playing changed to a new one where things will cost more?
I have the sense that we are witnessing a reorientation. Thirteen years ago, my wife and I had a less globally significant one—we had a baby. Suddenly “my” time was different. I didn’t own it in the same way; I wasn’t sitting atop a large pile of discretionary time I could spend how I wished. At all hours of day and night I was called to pick up or change or feed someone else. My time was given to my daughters, which is part of what happens in the process we call love. We share our pile of time.
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It’s not love, but this might be what happens with shifting economic conditions. We may have less of what we thought was “ours”—money to spend.
What can one do to ease the uncertainty?
You make sure that you’ve given every dollar a job. You focus on building margin. You practice funding your future, so you’re a month ahead on all your expenses, for instance. Having more money on hand means you won’t be flooded with second-guessing every time you spend. You’ll know it’s ok.
After that though, try to get comfortable with the uncertainty. Remember that things which at one time seemed unbearable or impossible to manage, often do become bearable. You acclimate, quickly even, to waking up a few times a night when the baby cries, you figure out how to manage an illness.
We’re always trying to create islands of peace and predictability. But even 18,000 BTUs from a Japanese-made HVAC unit can’t keep the chaos away. Sometimes, all we can do is look at how we’re spending our money and ask: “What changes do I need to make, if any?” This is one of the five core questions we teach, for moments just like this.
At YNAB, our team has decades of experience dealing with almost every kind of stressful or tight financial situation: from natural disasters to illness to recessions. We crowdsourced practical tips, along with our five questions that you can use to stay stable, sane, and spendful through it all.
When the ground shifts, find stability with the YNAB Method
Right now, it’s a double whammy: the prospect of rising prices and a less certain job market.
Maybe you’re wondering if now is the time to hit pause on a big trip, or delay a home repair, or reconsider how much you should save for next year’s tuition.
But take a deep breath. Don’t spiral out. Catastrophizing isn’t constructive and there is something you can do.
As YNAB’s veteran teacher, Erin, says:
Uncertainty is simply motivation to reassess priorities.
It’s time to apply the YNAB Method. And whether you have a little or a lot of money, whether you have debt, no children or seven, the first step is always the same:
Give Every Dollar a Job
Make sure that every dollar in your wallet, underwear drawer, and bank account has a purpose (okay, don’t worry about the underwear drawer). Some will go to rent, groceries, utilities, your monthly commuter rail ticket, etc.
If you’re used to making spending decisions based on how much money is in your account balance, this will make a dramatic difference. Just looking at your account balance doesn’t really tell you how much money is due next week for your credit card bill or your rent or the over-the-top holiday shopping that you take special joy in. That’s how you get blindsided by expenses and bills.
Giving every dollar a job will smooth out that roller coaster of spending and help you feel confident about where your money is going. No more second-guessing your spending.
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Without further ado, here are the five questions that’ll guide you through giving every dollar a job.
YNAB’s Five Questions:
- What does this money need to do before I’m paid again?
Get clear on how much money you have and what it needs to do next, so you don’t spend more important money on less important things.
- What larger, less frequent spending do I need to prepare for?
Anticipate upcoming expenses and start setting aside small, manageable amounts of money.
- What can I set aside for next month’s spending?
Make it a goal so that on the first day of the month, the entire month is completely funded with real money you have in your bank account.
- What goals, large or small, do I want to prioritize?
Who do you want to be and how can the money you have help you get there?
- What changes do I need to make, if any?
There’s no such thing as a “normal” month, so make a change to your plan when you need to and move on (no guilt required).
This practice gives you a sense of relief and control.
We’re planning our spending into June now. I don’t think we’ll always do that, but in times of uncertainty, it has really helped.
How to navigate high prices: Tips from the YNAB team
When inflation eats into your spending power, our team has come up with some thoughtful and creative ways to adapt and thrive.
1. Focus on Essentials with “Must Fund” Filters
“I created a filter called ‘Must Fund’ which shows me just the categories we absolutely need to cover. It’s a game-changer.”
Start by funding your needs: rent, groceries, utilities. After the essentials, give dollars to your remaining jobs.
2. Build Margin, Even If It’s Small
“During the big inflation spike, I put an extra category in YNAB that was just called “Inflation” – and it was a grab bag secreting space for covering overspent categories.”
Bringing more awareness to your spending doesn’t always mean cutting—it can also mean preparing.
3. Shop Smarter, Not Harder
“We’re visiting more farmer’s markets and shopping secondhand. We’re not being restrictive—just more intentional.”
A small shift in shopping habits can free up dollars for other priorities.
4. Pause, Then Purchase
“We try to shop our house before buying something new. Turns out, we didn’t need that new hand mixer after all.”
Delaying a purchase, even by a day, can help you wade out the initial craving and see if you still want it after you’ve had some time to sit with the desire. I tend to get obsessed about buying new things (like a backpack), scouring online reviews and Reddit. But I know that if I let myself get busy and give it a week or so, that if I’ve forgotten about the shiny thing then it’s a good sign I don’t need it so much after all.
Two new tools to see the bigger picture
If you need to change directions because of the economy or a job loss, you’ll need to understand your bigger spending picture. This way, you’ll know what to adjust and how much. It’s the difference between hoping you’re going to be okay, and knowing it.
YNAB has created two new features that help you better understand your spending behavior and change course (if you want):
Spotlight
This new area of the app highlights trends in your spending—perfect for answering questions like:
- What have we actually spent on groceries the last few months?
- Are our subscriptions quietly ballooning?
Use Spotlight to pursue your goals and keep an eye on important priorities.
Reflect
This tab gives important and actionable context about your money. Check out your net worth, spending trends, and income/expenses. These tools don’t just show you where you’ve been—they help you move forward with intention.
This isn’t forever, but your habits can be
This might be a hard season, but every season transitions to the next.
The choices you make now, the clarity you gain, the resilience you build—those don’t disappear when things settle. They become your new normal. Your new strength.
One YNABer put it simply:
I think this situation sucks, but also the YNAB Method is going to be the best way to navigate it.
As my wife and I figure out what our renovation will cost, and what we will need to scale back, it’s grounding to come back to these five questions. It’s tempting for me to spin out into a million questions – existential and catastrophizing ones for sure. Sticking with five questions, that feels like a bargain.
You don’t need a perfect economy or perfect circumstances to make progress. You just need a plan that adapts to this moment, and then the next one after that…
You can’t control rising prices. But with YNAB, you’ll get clarity and peace of mind to ride this turbulent moment with confidence—and carry those habits into the rest of your life.
